Market Information

So how many cable modems are out there? And who are the major players in this market? By looking at the Gallery you can get a good idea about who rules the DOCSIS cable modem world, but DOCSIS cable modem accounts for less than half the cable modems shipped (the DOCSIS share is growing).

The total number of cable modems installed in the world is estimated to be about 2.5 million. This number is expected to grow to over 8 million by the end of 2002. About 80% of all cable modems installed are in the US. As a reference, the total number of homes in North America that have access to cable TV is 115 million and the actual number of subscribers to cable TV is about 80 million. Obviously not all cable plants are ready for cable modem yet, as most need expensive upgrades to be able to handle 2-way traffic. But there is still plenty room to grow the cable modem business. 
Note: See also the 2001 update below.

Market Share

The following pie chart shows the major players in the 2-way cable modem market and their share of the shipments in the first three quarters of 1999 for a total of about 1.5 million units.

This shows both DOCSIS, DVB and proprietary systems. In the following table, the players in the two main categories are ranked according to units shipped:

Note: This information was compiled at the end of 1999, and is expected to change over time.

>Year 2001 update

A few bits of information from an IDC cable modem market study released summer 2001:

• Worldwide cable modem subscribers grew 178% to 7.2 million in 2000
• U.S. cable modem subscribers grew 171% to 3.8 million in 2000
• Cable modem subscribers in Western Europe grew to 1 million in 2000
• Worldwide subscribers are forecasted to grow to 57.5 million by 2005
• Subscribers in Western Europe are forecasted to be 17.7 million in 2005

Year 2002 update

Broadband Bob reports this in his excelent newsletter (Feb 6th, 2002):

A wave of broadband market studies have recently been released including studies by Strategis, Dell'Oro, GartnerG2, and The Yankee Group.

The Strategis Group has released "Residential Broadband: Cable Modems, DSL, & Fixed Wireless," a study offering an analysis of user attitudes and an overview of carrier activity and trends. Forecasts for each technology are included. The firm finds that the combined residential broadband market will exceed 38 million households by 2006.

Dell'Oro has released a report on the access market, tracking DSL, cable modems, and dial-up modems. The "Access -Year Forecast Report" includes an industry overview as well as revenue, unit, and price forecasts. The firm finds the market for access equipment to grow from $7.8 billion in 2001 to $11.1 billion in 2006.

GartnerG2 has released "Broadband: The Revolution is on Hold Europe Just Now," a study providing analysis of the development of broadband across Europe. The firm finds a significant number of Internet users in France, Germany and the UK to be unwilling to pay premium prices for broadband, and without new compelling content or reduced pricing, the penetration rate of broadband services in these areas is projected to be no more than 10% by 2005. GartnerG2 suggests that providers must reduce prices from a current average of 45-60 Euros per month to less than 30 Euros per month.

European Net Access Stats (Year-End 2001) - provided by GartnerG2:

GartnerG2 finds the Netherlands to be the most broadband friendly nation in Europe. A third of the households are expected to adopt broadband by 2005. Greece is expected to have the worst broadband penetration.

The Yankee Group has released "Asia-Pacific Broadband Access: Forecast and Outlook," a study of broadband access development in Australia, China, Hong Kong, India, Indonesia, Japan, Korea, Malaysia, New Zealand, the Philippines, Singapore, Taiwan, Thailand, and Vietnam.

The firm finds that ADSL has led the broadband market in Asia with a 49% share in 2000. It projects 27 million ADSL subs in Asia by 2004. The Yankee Group also projects Korea to have 13.2 million broadband subs by 2004, with Japan serving 12.0 million subs, and Taiwan serving 3.4 million subs over the same period.

At Broadband Outlook 2002, the Consumer Electronics Association stated that the penetration rate of broadband services in the U.S. was 10%, among the 68% of homes passed by services. The firm projects the take rate to reach 20% by the end of this year.

PC World magazine, within its February issue, projects 43 million broadband subscribers by 2005.

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